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18 Game seasons inevitable?

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18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  Big_Pete on Wed Aug 25, 2010 6:05 pm

from espn


Roger Goodell: Owners want 18 games

NFL Looking To Expand Regular Season

ATLANTA -- NFL owners have shown widespread support for going to an 18-game schedule but want to implement the change as part of a new labor agreement.

Commissioner Roger Goodell says owners see two more regular-season games -- and two fewer preseason games -- as the most logical way to enhance revenues in a difficult economic environment. He says it will be one of the main issues in talks on reaching a new collective bargaining agreement.

The current deal runs out after this season. Players are eager to see how much of the additional revenue they will receive with an expanded schedule, especially since it could increase the risk of injuries or health problems after they retire.

Goodell says the league is targeting 2012 for the 18-game season.

Also looks like there is some progress on a new CBA, which bodes well for next year, along there is still some ways to go.
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Re: 18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  56 Crazed Dogs on Wed Aug 25, 2010 9:13 pm

Why not a 17 game schedule with three pre-season games. All I keep hearing is 18 and 2 pre.
This should make most players happy I would think.
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Re: 18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  Big_Pete on Thu Aug 26, 2010 6:15 pm

TD wrote:Why not a 17 game schedule with three pre-season games. All I keep hearing is 18 and 2 pre.
This should make most players happy I would think.

It comes back to revenue

I know some will say there is less chance for fringe players to make the roster, but conversly the rosters will also likely be larger to accomodate the longer season.

I discussed some of this previously here
http://touchdownblue.forumotion.com/big-blue-nfl-talk-f2/my-solution-to-a-new-cba-t870.htm

I did a few quick sums to get a general idea of what we are taking about.
each extra season game is about an extra $10m per team for the salary cap (based on my projected 2011 numbers). One extra game won't get to the kind of numbers the players want, but two extra games is around and extra $20m to each teams salary cap based on 2011 numbers, this would increase substantially as revenue increases.

I wouldn't be surprised if next year moved to a 17 game season as a stepping stone to 18 games in 2012.
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Re: 18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  Big_Pete on Thu Aug 26, 2010 6:15 pm

here is another article

18-game NFL season could mean a new TV partner, permanent date for Super Bowl
August 26, 2010 | 2:21 pm

The National Football League's push for to extend the regular season to 18 games -- from its current schedule of 16 -- could have a dramatic effect not just on the players and fans, but also on the television industry.

GOODELL Although an 18-game season is not a lock, it seems likely to happen, perhaps as early as 2012. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has said the league intends to officially propose extending the season by two games in the near future. While the NFL Players Union will probably oppose it, owners will push hard for a longer season because of the revenue it could bring them.

Clearly, a longer season would give the NFL some juice to try to get the networks to pay more for rights. The NFL's current deals with CBS, NBC, ESPN and Fox are set to expire in 2014. The league takes in about $3.1 billion annually for those deals, another $1 billion annually from DirecTV for the Sunday Ticket package and $400 million a year from its own NFL Network.

With a longer season, the league could even consider carving out yet another television package of games. Currently, the NFL Network carries eight games in the second half of the season on Thursday and Saturday nights. The NFL could add one game to that package and create another nine-game package for games in the first half of the season that it could sell to itself or to another cable or broadcast network.

As for whether an 18-game season would mean an earlier start or later finish: If recent history is any guide, the NFL wants to take over February. The Super Bowl always used to be played in mid- to late January, but over the last 10 years, the game has mostly taken place in February. Adding two regular-season games could push the Super Bowl into mid-February and give the NFL a chance to make the three-day Presidents' Day weekend a permanent home for its biggest event. No doubt there are plenty of football fans who overdo it on Super Bowl Sunday and wouldn't mind having Monday off.

-- Joe Flint
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Re: 18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  Big_Pete on Thu Aug 26, 2010 6:28 pm

Using the numbers from this article, the NFL currently earns around $4.5bn in TV rights.

Going to 18 Games will immediately increase TV revenue by around 1/8, which means the TV revenue increases to around $5.1bn

if that extra $0.6bn was given to increase the salary cap, that means an extra $18.75m per team.
To put that in todays terms, if the owners hadn't opted out, the 2010 salary cap would have been around $135m per team - if there was an 18 game season this year it becomes around $154m per team

Owners still make more money from the extra games, merchandise etc to help pay for new stadiums, off season activities etc.

Naturally things are much more complex than this simplistic approach, but hopefully it gives you a glimpse of what is being discussed.

Considering the issues on both sides, I don't think a new CBA is possible without an 18 game season.
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Re: 18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  56 Crazed Dogs on Fri Aug 27, 2010 7:05 am

If this happens, I would like to see an increased roster that helps protect more key players on special teams units.

Game day rosters should have dedicated special teams players in which that is their only job. Maybe 4-5 players that can't play any other plays. It would be easy enough to do by just activating some of these players off from the practice squad on game day.
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Re: 18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  Pizan on Fri Aug 27, 2010 1:54 pm

^ I agree TD. The roster limit should go to 58. I am in favor of the 18 games though. More football is good for everyone.
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Re: 18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  Big_Pete on Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:43 am

Pizan wrote:^ I agree TD. The roster limit should go to 58. I am in favor of the 18 games though. More football is good for everyone.

I was thinking if you increased rosters by 1/8, that is around 60 players for a the active roster, it seems quite reasonable.
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Re: 18 Game seasons inevitable?

Post  Big_Pete on Sat Aug 28, 2010 6:44 am

here is an article by espn's John Clayton



Expanded schedule is good idea if ...


... it means labor peace in 2011; otherwise league can't justify added toll on players






jQuery.getScriptCache('http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/c/?js=espn.tools.r3.js', function() {
espn.core.init.tools('5492111','http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john%26id=5492111');
});By John Clayton
ESPN.com







The NFL can justify going to an 18-game regular season, but only -- and I repeat, only -- if it means no lockout in 2011.Expanding
the regular season by two games has its problems. But more games means
more revenue and more revenue can be the olive branch that could lead to
long-lasting labor peace. The last collective bargaining extension in
2006 was heavily favored toward the players. To fix it, owners have to
get the players to accept a lower percentage of revenues in order for
teams to secure better profit margins. Adding two games can accomplish
that and would enable both parties to make more money.What
doesn't make sense is locking out players in order to force them into
taking a much lower percentage and then asking them to endure two more
games of pounding. Plus, a lockout could ultimately hurt revenues. Sure,
the 18-game schedule would be set for 2012, but who is going to renew
season tickets in 2011 under the clouds of a tough economy when there is
no guarantee games will be played in the fall? Plus, a labor disruption
could turn off a young fan base that craves news on transactions and
fantasy information and doesn't want to hear about labor issues.Owners
are expected to vote in the near future, and there isn't expected to be
much opposition. Commissioner Roger Goodell has stated repeatedly the
four-game preseason is too long and fans aren't buying it. He's right.
More and more local games are being blacked out. Fans have complained
for years about being forced to pay regular-season prices for games
filled with backups. Expanded offseason programs have allowed coaches to
get players in shape enough to sacrifice two preseason games and
replace them with two regular-season games.Although the players
sound reluctant to go to 18 games, it's going to be hard for them to
turn down the idea of getting two regular-season game checks instead of
being paid around $1,000 a week to play meaningless preseason games.An
18-game schedule has its faults. Figuring a game usually results in 2
injuries per team, the injury attrition rate could be a problem. Sure,
rosters will be expanded by three or four players per team, but those
players can't replace valued starters late in the season or in the
playoffs. An 18-game regular season will alter the record book, but that
was a complaint when the NFL had 12 and 14 regular-season games and
wanted more.With two more games, the league still doesn't plan to
start the regular season before Labor Day, so that means the Super Bowl
would be played around the third week in February. Later playoff games
could be problems in cold-weather sites. Overall, though, no one
can complain about having more meaningful football. And if it leads to
significant labor peace, I'm all for it.
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